 |
| Coat of arms of Syria -- the "Hawk of Qureish" with shield of vertical tricolor of the national flag, holding a scroll with the words الجمهورية العربية السورية (Al-Jumhuriyah al-`Arabiyah as-Suriyah "The Syrian Arab Republic"). (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
|  5:06 AM (2 hours ago) | | ||
For those of my friends and colleagues who work until last minute before the holidays or those who read serious material even during those happy days I recommend several important articles about the civil war in Syria, which will not be stopped by the New Year festivities elsewhere but will surely influence the regional and global arena.
David Kenner, "Rewriting Syria’s War," at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/
Kenner mentions the leak of an influential, unpublished report which looks how to radically revise notions of how to achieve peace in the war-torn country. The author of this report, former journalist Nir Rosen, is a researcher with the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD Centre), a Geneva-based conflict mediation organization. The report came out of meetings Rosen held with U.S. officials and analysts in Washington. It was sent to officials at the State Department and the National Security Council where it was distributed among Syria policy groups. The HD Centre, meanwhile, produced an 11-page version of Rosen’s report that contained the same policy proposals, but omitted the quotations from regime officials and many of the sweeping statements about the nature of the armed opposition and the Assad regime.
James Traub, "Bashar al-Assad and the Devil’s Bargain," at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/
Traub, who received the Rosen report and quotes from it, presents it as a new plan to stop the bleeding in Syria by agreeing to a limited truce with the regime in Damascus. It’s repugnant -- but is it wrong? he asks. The premise of the HD report, titled "Steps to Settle the Syrian Conflict," is that neither the regime nor the rebels are capable of defeating the other and the stalemate creates conditions in which both ISIS and al-Nusra Front, the local al Qaeda offshoot, can thrive. The report emphasizes that the proposals it advances "emerge from Syrians and would be implemented by Syrians in a bottom-up fashion, rather than imposed by outsiders from the top down." The problem with the Rosen solution is that it actually permits the survival of the Assad regime and was published just after Damascus suffered some military reversals, including in the strategic Qalamoun area bordering Lebanon.
Sadik J. Al-Azm, "Syria in Revolt: Understanding the Unthinkable War," at http://www.bostonreview.net/
Al-Azam presents a comprehensive picture of the unfolding Syrian uprising he calls "intifada" and argues that "the West has failed, perhaps wilfully, to understand the revolution." Contrary to the reality on the ground, the author claims that in Syria "there are no indications of sectarian contest." However, at the end of his long paper he affirms that "the solution can come only with the termination of political Alawitism."
Yezid Sayigh, “The Assad Regime’s Political “Achilles’ Heel,” at http://carnegie-mec.org/
Sayigh argues that the Assad regime has repeatedly exuded its confidence over the improvement of its strategic situation during the past twelve months. Territorial gains on some fronts have encouraged it to maintain its hardline military approach in dealing with the Syrian rebellion without any political reform. But, according to Sayigh, the regime is increasingly stretched, militarily and financially and its refusal to engage politically with its own constituencies threatens it. The regime clearly believes that loyalist constituencies have no choice but to continue fighting, but its margin for manoeuvre is narrowing and by insisting on an exclusively military approach, it takes itself closer to the point where it has no political or social cushion domestically. This is its Achilles’ Heel.
Jennifer Cafarella, "Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria," at http://www.understandingwar.
This is probably the most comprehensive and in-depth recent article about the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabbhat al-Nusra (JN). It's main argument, carefully demonstrated by a wealth of examples, is that it has developed into a serious and expanding threat both to the West and to the future of Syria. JN is not less dangerous than ISIS. It shares al-Qaeda’s aims and is working to achieve them. The differences between JN and ISIS are not in objective, but rather in methodology, claims Cafarella. JN follows a more gradualist approach to state-building than that of ISIS. JN is gaining control of terrain in Syria even as U.S. forces target ISIS with airstrikes. The most interesting part of the paper is the analysis of JN’s strategy of working through networks of partnered or affiliated rebel groups which aggregate its level of influence throughout rebel ranks. JN serves as a force multiplier for other rebel groups and contributes an essential special forces-like capability to rebel military offensives. JN complements this influence with a nonlethal campaign for local support within rebel-held Syria.
From the Israeli point of view, it is amazing how JN, with other rebel forces, has taken control of most of the strongholds on the border with the Golan Heights and the Quneitra border crossing without a clear Israeli military response to this immediate threat. At this stage of the Syrian conflict, JN is the main threat to Israeli interests and not ISIS.
Sorry for duplicates.
Happy holidays and a successful New Year,
Ely Karmon, PhD
Senior Research Scholar
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC(
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.: 972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il<mailto:ekarm
Web: http://www.ict.org.il/
David Kenner, "Rewriting Syria’s War," at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/
Kenner mentions the leak of an influential, unpublished report which looks how to radically revise notions of how to achieve peace in the war-torn country. The author of this report, former journalist Nir Rosen, is a researcher with the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD Centre), a Geneva-based conflict mediation organization. The report came out of meetings Rosen held with U.S. officials and analysts in Washington. It was sent to officials at the State Department and the National Security Council where it was distributed among Syria policy groups. The HD Centre, meanwhile, produced an 11-page version of Rosen’s report that contained the same policy proposals, but omitted the quotations from regime officials and many of the sweeping statements about the nature of the armed opposition and the Assad regime.
James Traub, "Bashar al-Assad and the Devil’s Bargain," at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/
Traub, who received the Rosen report and quotes from it, presents it as a new plan to stop the bleeding in Syria by agreeing to a limited truce with the regime in Damascus. It’s repugnant -- but is it wrong? he asks. The premise of the HD report, titled "Steps to Settle the Syrian Conflict," is that neither the regime nor the rebels are capable of defeating the other and the stalemate creates conditions in which both ISIS and al-Nusra Front, the local al Qaeda offshoot, can thrive. The report emphasizes that the proposals it advances "emerge from Syrians and would be implemented by Syrians in a bottom-up fashion, rather than imposed by outsiders from the top down." The problem with the Rosen solution is that it actually permits the survival of the Assad regime and was published just after Damascus suffered some military reversals, including in the strategic Qalamoun area bordering Lebanon.
Sadik J. Al-Azm, "Syria in Revolt: Understanding the Unthinkable War," at http://www.bostonreview.net/
Al-Azam presents a comprehensive picture of the unfolding Syrian uprising he calls "intifada" and argues that "the West has failed, perhaps wilfully, to understand the revolution." Contrary to the reality on the ground, the author claims that in Syria "there are no indications of sectarian contest." However, at the end of his long paper he affirms that "the solution can come only with the termination of political Alawitism."
Yezid Sayigh, “The Assad Regime’s Political “Achilles’ Heel,” at http://carnegie-mec.org/
Sayigh argues that the Assad regime has repeatedly exuded its confidence over the improvement of its strategic situation during the past twelve months. Territorial gains on some fronts have encouraged it to maintain its hardline military approach in dealing with the Syrian rebellion without any political reform. But, according to Sayigh, the regime is increasingly stretched, militarily and financially and its refusal to engage politically with its own constituencies threatens it. The regime clearly believes that loyalist constituencies have no choice but to continue fighting, but its margin for manoeuvre is narrowing and by insisting on an exclusively military approach, it takes itself closer to the point where it has no political or social cushion domestically. This is its Achilles’ Heel.
Jennifer Cafarella, "Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria," at http://www.understandingwar.
This is probably the most comprehensive and in-depth recent article about the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabbhat al-Nusra (JN). It's main argument, carefully demonstrated by a wealth of examples, is that it has developed into a serious and expanding threat both to the West and to the future of Syria. JN is not less dangerous than ISIS. It shares al-Qaeda’s aims and is working to achieve them. The differences between JN and ISIS are not in objective, but rather in methodology, claims Cafarella. JN follows a more gradualist approach to state-building than that of ISIS. JN is gaining control of terrain in Syria even as U.S. forces target ISIS with airstrikes. The most interesting part of the paper is the analysis of JN’s strategy of working through networks of partnered or affiliated rebel groups which aggregate its level of influence throughout rebel ranks. JN serves as a force multiplier for other rebel groups and contributes an essential special forces-like capability to rebel military offensives. JN complements this influence with a nonlethal campaign for local support within rebel-held Syria.
From the Israeli point of view, it is amazing how JN, with other rebel forces, has taken control of most of the strongholds on the border with the Golan Heights and the Quneitra border crossing without a clear Israeli military response to this immediate threat. At this stage of the Syrian conflict, JN is the main threat to Israeli interests and not ISIS.
Sorry for duplicates.
Happy holidays and a successful New Year,
Ely Karmon, PhD
Senior Research Scholar
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC(
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.: 972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il<mailto:ekarm
Web: http://www.ict.org.il/
No comments:
Post a Comment